The 5 most important crypto developments of july 2022
Alex Poltorak - 00:00:06:
Stable coins are manipulating their own monetary policies. So this is probably why they are kind of scared about stable coins. And they should be. That's a concern for central banks. There is another concern for protecting users. I wouldn't say investor in this case because you don't invest in a stable coin to protect the users. Probably the issues should be regulated as a bank.
Didier Borel - 00:00:38:
Welcome to the Swiss Road to Crypto monthly review for the month of July 2022. I am joined, as usual, by Alex Poltorak, cofounder of Hodling SA, and by Mauro Cappiello, co-founder of Blockchain Innovation Group. In this episode we will review some major headlines relating to the following subjects: Swiss Post Finance and Bitcoin, European regulation, Russia bans, crypto and the bitcoin hash ribbons and Coinbase withdrawals. But before we get started, a word from the sponsors who make this show possible. First up, Descript. Are you interested in having your own podcast but don't know how to get started? The idea of editing your own audio files intimidates you. I use the Descript software to edit this podcast, and I highly recommend it. It's easy to use, much easier than any other editing software I know. You can record directly on your PC or Mac or on another device and then import the files. It also produces a transcript of your audio files. Best of all, they have an overdub function. That means that you can type in text and your voice generated by the program will read the text. So when you need to add in a word or sentence to an audio file that you forgot to say during the recording, you can use the overdub function to insert it afterwards. I highly recommend the Pro version, which is what I use. And if you pay annually, it costs $288 a year. I really think it's worth it. Use the link in the show notes to connect to Descript and help support this podcast. Next up Shift Crypto are you looking for a hardware wallet to store your bitcoin or other crypto assets? Consider BitBox made by Shift crypto. They are based in Switzerland and have been very well audited. The CEO, Douglas Bakkum was on this podcast and you can find that episode in the same place you found this episode. The other co-founder, Johannes Schnelli, was a Bitcoin Core developer and submitted his first line of code to Bitcoin Core in 2013. Also, if you like cool design, this product has the coolest design of all hardware wallets I know. Use the link in the Show Notes to get started and to help support this podcast. And finally Braintrust are you a software engineer, UI designer, content manager, content marketer and would like to work independently as a freelancer and using privately held platforms like Fiverr or Upwork take much too much of a commission. Braintrust has replaced the middle man by code and the amount of take home pay you get on the Braintrust platform is 100% of what you build. Other fields of work are being added continuously to the Braintrust platform as well. So check them out to see if they have a job for you. On top of that, on Braintrust, you can make money by referring other people to the platform as well. Look at the two episodes I did with Adam Jackson and your favorite podcast player. Adam Jackson is a cofounder and CEO and find out more about how Braintrust works. Click on the show notes to get started and help support this podcast. Okay, let's start with the first subject. Because we're The Swiss Road to Crypto, we want to mention what's happening in Switzerland. So Post Finance, which is a finance arm of the Swiss Post Office, it's the fifth largest retail bank in Switzerland, will allow it to over 2 million customers to buy, sell and hold Bitcoin by 2024. The Swiss Post Bank wants to make cryptocurrencies accessible to its customers in the next two years.
Alex Poltorak - 00:04:06:
So do you mean that they allow customers to have private keys and to hold real Bitcoin?
Didier Borel - 00:04:15:
I don't know the implementation yet. You have doubts about that? Is that what you're saying?
Mauro Cappiello - 00:04:19:
I don't expect that. I don't expect that they can transfer in crypto. They probably could just buy and sell from there. It's like a resolute model, right, where the risk is limited because they don't transfer in number one. Two they don't have private keys. But I was still surprised that they are announcing that so many years ahead and not when it's ready.
Alex Poltorak - 00:04:43:
Yeah. So first of all, it's a derivative product. It's not Bitcoin that come with all the associated risks and yeah, also, it's not Bitcoin, it's something else. What makes me really sad about this story is that Post Finance is making lives of every crypto company very complicated. And basically you can't open a bank account if you're a crypto company. They don't even try to check if you're legit or not legit, if you have a famous non action letter or whatever. Personally, I went with my company Hodling and they showed me the door at the reception desk. I haven't even spoken with any specialist, no question asked, like, you are in Bitcoin, go away. Thanks.
Didier Borel - 00:05:38:
Okay, so it sounds like a mixed corporate message, which usually means this organization and different corporate entities within the corporation are going in different directions.
Mauro Cappiello - 00:05:50:
The other thing I was surprised is first, as I mentioned early announcements to be ready in 24, that they didn’t know which partners were or they would communicate them or still evaluate them, it sounded like. So I was kind of surprised about that too, because together with Swiss Code, they have built you right. Which is kind of like I would say would probably be the best basis to launch crypto on that app, right. Because it has the cash side, it has securities derivatives. So I'm kind of surprised that it's Swiss Code. They didn't mention anybody at this point in time. So kind of really still surprised by so early what that really means and things could charge.
Alex Poltorak - 00:06:39:
You can load approximately any bitcoin wallet through at least two of the Swiss brokers, at least through PostFinance or any bank account. So I don't see any innovation. And just to say, Mauro, I fully agree. It's very strange that they're not doing this with you and your Swiss Code. I was very surprised. So maybe it's the case, but for now the announcements look like it's their own solution.
Mauro Cappiello - 00:07:08:
Didier Borel - 00:07:10:
Okey dokey. Moving on to some more regulatory issues. The EU agrees to a landmark crypto authorization law. The world's third biggest economy wants the markets and crypto assets regulation to protect investors and to set up strict standards for stablecoin issuers. So the law seems just like a general overview where they want to regulate anything that looks like a security needs to be regulated. But I found what was especially striking to me was a stable coin. So the lawmaker Ernest Erstsuan tweeted that the deal would include a cap on large stable coins that become widely used as a means of payment, meaning they can't exceed 200 million euro of transactions per day, which of course sounds very small.
Alex Poltorak - 00:08:03:
Not small, big or whatever, it's just unenforceable.
Mauro Cappiello - 00:08:07:
But is it surprising to you? Because I tell you from the Bank of International Settlements, they are kind of mentioning stablecoin the time as an evil product because they can do it themselves better. International banks are not interested to establish retail based stable coins, at least probably not here. Maybe other accounts they do for other reasons. So I'm not surprised that they're kind of putting threshold on that. So that the risk, the exposure, they are starting to manage it closer. So next one, as we talked many times here, is going to be DeFi in the same direction. Right? Kind of like the only way to manage it is to put a volume or threshold or other restrictions on it. Now, can they enforce it? Alex, I think you're right, it's going to be hard, but I think they will find a way for everybody who is licensed to lock them in.
Alex Poltorak - 00:09:12:
Yeah. So to me, banks, especially central banks, should consider stable coins as much larger evil than Bitcoin, Ether, or any other cryptocurrencies because the other cryptocurrencies is kind of like another state, like the internet state, stable coins are manipulating their own monetary policies. So this is probably why they are kind of scared about stable coins and they should be. So that's a concern for central banks. There is another concern for protecting the users. I wouldn't say investor in this case because you don't invest into a stable coin, you just use it. So to protect the users, probably the issues should be regulated as a bank and this. I always agreed that most, if not all stable coins, even like DAI at some point I was considering that it's decentralized did stablecoin. I slightly changed my mind. It's the most decentralized stablecoin, but still centralized enough to be regulated, in my opinion. But putting a cap, it's kind of unenforceable.
Mauro Cappiello - 00:10:34:
I see two things I'm just really brainstorming with some older people too. I think there's going to be two types of stable coin. One is going to be the investment type stable coin where people will asset back to develop these stable coins. But as an investment, really, I think that is probably going to move on because that's easier regulated, easier managed. And I think the impact people may not want to use it as trade for buying pizza. I think I could see that developing by itself. And then I think the normal stable coin, as we see it as a day to day use, I can see much more pressure coming there and especially if you go into regulators but feed more others, they're not going to be fast in saying clearly, go ahead, non action lenders, they're going to take every last bit to be sure that they have control. It doesn't run out of control.
Didier Borel - 00:11:41:
Alex, you said that Maker DAI. You think now is sufficiently decentralized did be regulated?
Alex Poltorak - 00:11:47:
Not now. It always has been. I just was tricked into thinking that it's truly decentralized protocol. But the governance that Maker has, if you look at any of these governance meetings, it's like a discussion from central bankers. So I think it's kind of the same. Now the situation gets slightly worse recently, let's say in the last year or two, with a loan backing only in Eth, but in other coins, including now it's mostly USDC. So most of the did issued are now back in decentralized ID USDC. And here we have many conflicts. Like for example, USDC is fully centralized and confiscated. So if you use it for illegal activities, it can be confiscated. But now if you take your USDC and issue a loan in DAI, the DAI cannot be confiscated, but the collateral of the loan can be confiscated. So when it will be confiscated, it will punish all the legit users of Maker DAO. So it becomes more and more let's sat subject to the external pressure from decentralized entities. And anyway, these governance meetings looks, at least to me, as central banks meetings.
Mauro Cappiello - 00:13:24:
What kind of players are sitting on these governance meetings? Are they regulated entities? No, they're just the major players in the market.
Alex Poltorak - 00:13:35:
Basically, it's MKR token holders. So those who hold the MKR Maker token.
Didier Borel - 00:13:46:
The major players are very small in numbers. I mean, there are few people who make all the decisions. Like how many would you say? Is it three people?
Alex Poltorak - 00:13:53:
It's even unrelated to their number or their quality, quantity, whatever. It's just that they are people who are making centralized decisions on many issues, on percentages, on many aspects of Maker DAO.
Didier Borel - 00:14:11:
Yeah, this doesn't surprise me, really, because if you look at DAOs, they're very much like running companies or running democracies. In other words, most people don't vote, most people don't charge. And so therefore, most people, for example, in a democracy, you delegate all your power to the people in parliament. And most of the people who in the general population, they don't really care about what's being voted on in parliament. When you run a company, the board of directors makes all the decisions and most shareholders are happy with those decisions and don't care about an issue enough to go raise an issue with the board. So it doesn't surprise me that in the end there's only a few small groups of people who care enough to really go to the work and do the work and look into every issue.
Alex Poltorak - 00:14:59:
Yeah. So I'm still extremely optimistic about the future of DAOs, but for now there is a great panel with Gavin Wood, Vladimir and I don't remember the others on the panel about the DAOs. And it was really shocking how these different people had different views of what the DAO is. For Gavin Wood, the DAO is just like an Excel spreadsheet. And you too to optimize existing organizations. So for him, there is absolutely no conflict between using a DAO for a multinational company to optimize processes. For Zamfier and I'm clearly on that side. DAO is a new type of organization for managing commons. For managing commons, really extremely large scale, like planetary scale. And it's application for digitalization? Yes, of course it can be used for organization, but it's boring. It's like optimizing an Excel spreadsheet. So we will see how it evolved. But I'm definitely not optimistic about using these kind of tools for optimizing structures that we believe we should change or make evolve into something different.
Didier Borel - 00:16:31:
They're going to be more useful for governing structures that don't yet really exist. For some new use cases that we shouldn't apply it to current use cases, it's going to really come into its own when we apply to new use cases.
Alex Poltorak - 00:16:42:
Yeah, that's at least how I perceive the DAOs.
Mauro Cappiello - 00:16:48:
Maybe not new use cases, but maybe new companies, new ventures, starting from zero with no history. I don't mean history in terms of negative, in terms of legal structure and all of that. If you cannot start from zero, it's probably much easier, right, to use it.
Alex Poltorak - 00:17:09:
Mauro if you see it as a legal structure, they are basically two ways you can say it's not a legal structure, it's an organizational structure that is enforced by the peer to peer network. This is one way of seeing the thing and the other way of seeing the thing. We don't care about the peer to peer, we don't care about the blockchain, cryptography, blah, blah, blah. It's just a new technological tool to be applied to the new structure, and the enforcement will still be by law. By governments.
Mauro Cappiello - 00:17:46:
Exactly. If you think about our voting project, where we basically just a bunch of people building some software, and they're dealing they're using the DAO functionality. And all kinds of things to manage the evolution. Right.
Alex Poltorak - 00:18:05:
Yes. You agree when we were doing this, it's really as an experiment, and we clearly understand that we are in Switzerland, so if we come to a really strong disagreement, it will end up with Swiss law.
Mauro Cappiello - 00:18:24:
No, that's what I mean. You're absolutely right. What you said before, it's kind of like the project doesn't matter if it's blockchain or crypto or anything.
Alex Poltorak - 00:18:32:
Mauro Cappiello - 00:18:32:
Basically anybody could use this form of software and logic to kind of manage, let's say, a face of a development or of a company. Right.
Didier Borel - 00:18:46:
But I have to say, I don't really see what's different in it than running a company or running a democracy. For me, it's is that you identify yourself with a private key, and you vote by signing a message with a private key. But aside from that, I don't see the difference between traditional democrat.
Mauro Cappiello - 00:19:06:
It's a tool. It's like you don't have a project plan, but you can assess who contributed what. This is at least what we remember, Alex, what we're trying to do. I felt it was very helpful to use a tool to basically manage the contribution of each of the members. Right.
Alex Poltorak - 00:19:28:
Okay. As someone said, the marriage is not for living together, it's for the divorce. And the contract is also for how you break the contract. It is, but when you create a company, usually it's not just to build stuff together. You can build stuff together without having a company. This is to have some legal protection from the state in the case that your partners do something wrong or whatever. So in the case of a doubt, you have two choices. You rely on the same state authorities for enforcing the contract, or you rely purely on the peer to peer network blockchain and cryptography. And this is like Zamfier's vision, and Gavin vision is more like it's a tool, but when things fuck up, we go to the state.
Didier Borel - 00:20:24:
Well, it depends on what it is. You need somebody to enforce it. If the thing that you need to enforce is purely virtual and digital, then the blockchain suffices. If it's in the real world, then you're going to have to have the person who you want to enforce the rules, you have to have him to recognize the blockchain database as the legitimate resource.
Alex Poltorak - 00:20:43:
It's even slightly more strict than what you just said. It's not sufficient to be digital. It should be leaving on the blockchain. If it's an asset living on the blockchain itself, it can be governed by the blockchain.
Didier Borel - 00:20:58:
Alex Poltorak - 00:20:58:
If it's, for example, an image in NFT, it's external to the blockchain and cannot be governed by the blockchain.
Didier Borel - 00:21:08:
Mauro Cappiello - 00:21:10:
You guys agree. Everybody is going to probably use it. Not everybody. People will use it in a different way, right?
Alex Poltorak - 00:21:17:
Mauro Cappiello - 00:21:18:
But the good thing, I do think it provides options to govern things on blockchain off blockchain. I think we will probably see much more of that developing with new generation companies.
Didier Borel - 00:21:34:
Okay, moving on. This is the subject mostly for our friend Alex, because you have contacts in Russia. So Russia bans digital asset payments. Russia passed a new law banning digital assets as payments, making it illegal to pay for goods and services in crypto. This comes after a sharp uturn the Russian president took back in February to legalize crypto assets as a payment method, which was another sharp pivot from the Central Bank's proposed ban on using and use of crypto, dubbed as a strategic move to quash opposition crowdfunding donations through BTC. So, yes, they're in Russia Ethereum. Their position seems to change all the time. Alex, what does this inspire your did? What's your takeaway from this?
Mauro Cappiello - 00:22:23:
Alex? Alex, one question quickly. Is this driven by the war?
Alex Poltorak - 00:22:29:
I don't think at all. So, first, I don't only have friends in Russia. I'm kind of Soviet. I wouldn't say Russian because it's complicated. I was born in the Soviet Union, actually, in Kiev, Ukraine. So it's really complicated. But yeah. So first the Russian president, Putin, he's playing this game of like, taking opposite decision all the time so that the people cannot understand which direction are we going. It's a kind of theater. Then you should consider that any foreign currency, it's not about Bitcoin, any foreign currency, any non national currency are strictly forbidden for payments in Russia. This is the only thing that allowed to hold Russian ruble. Otherwise it would entirely collapse and would be replaced by better money. Since collapse of the Soviet Union, it was kind of the crash. After Soviet Union, people were using USD, even pricing things in USD thing that Russia was able to do to bring the rubber back was to completely forbid any pricing or monetary exchange, like buying selling products with anything else than the Russian ruble. And any country with a weak national currency has similar rules. So this is not anything new. It was always forbidden to pay in anything else than the ruble. So maybe some people thought that Bitcoin is not the currency, it's something else. So maybe they did a loan to Precise, that it's also a currency. At least we consider it as a currency, but not our own national currency. So payments are forbidden. Then on the mining side, they still see that it's an opportunity, that there is an opportunity and like part of the cake to take. So this is kind of authorized and they are trying to build a good regulation. I'm not sure how good it will be for the minors, but at least they're trying. So I think it's a non news, at least for me. It's nothing new.
Didier Borel - 00:25:03:
Okay, gentlemen, next subject. We're going to talk about Cash App ribbons, and miners, and we're also going to talk about withdrawals from exchanges. So first let me start with withdrawals from exchanges. We're seeing huge outflows from exchanges, about 145,000 bitcoins per month. But if you take a look at Coinbase, what's new is they have withdrawals of large amounts, like ten or 20,000 BTC, going to new addresses and going to a single address. So I found that significant because that probably means that institutional clients that maybe used to use Coinbase as their custodian now have possibly their own custodial solutions in place. And they solve the recent problems with Three Arrows and so Ayn Rand. So now they're withdrawing monero from Coinbase. I don't know if you have any remarks there, gentlemen.
Mauro Cappiello - 00:25:58:
I think I can see that institutions are now gearing up to have their own infrastructure. I hope it's going to get cheaper and cheaper to have institutional custody infrastructure.
Alex Poltorak - 00:26:14:
Yeah, so Claims was sending emails to their customers suggesting to withdraw crypto from them and even telling scary things like that if they go bankrupt, the customer's crypto may be concierge as on the.
Didier Borel - 00:26:35:
Balance sheet of Coinbase in the credit?
Alex Poltorak - 00:26:37:
Yeah, on the balance sheet. And so part of the bankruptcy liquidation. So it's not customers first. It's first like the salaries of the employees, then some external debtors, and only then investors and customers would be in this case considered as investors, probably. So it's clearly a lack of good regulation and clarity on the guarantees for this kind of institutions. I mean, Coinbase Pro and this kind of custodials. So they were sending these kind of emails at the beginning of the year to customers. So I'm not surprised at all that large amounts are leaving base. I'm surprised that silence is still big into custody because they are way worse structure than Coinbase in legal terms. So I'm surprised people are still very much yolo with their phones, especially these institutional investors.
Mauro Cappiello - 00:27:48:
Alex, this sounds like when I was at UBS many years ago in the investment banking industry, banks and investment banks did not segregate client money with their prop money. So you couldn't differentiate what was what. So you think that convoy is back there mixing up client and their own assets.
Alex Poltorak - 00:28:13:
So technically speaking, it's extremely easy on bitcoin to segregate assets. So I don't believe that they technically cannot do it. It's just on the legal side because when, for example, you hit a bankruptcy, it's not you who decide, it's a bankruptcy manager who is appointed and he will take decisions.
Didier Borel - 00:28:38:
All right, let's move on to the next subject, hash rate ribbons and minors. So let me just explain what hash rate ribbons are. Cash App ribbons are basically graphs that show the 30 day moving average and the 60 day moving average of the total hash rate on the bitcoin blockchain. So it's an indicator that says if the 30 day moving average of hash rate is below the 60 day moving average of the hash rate on Bitcoin Blockchain. That means miners are turning off their mining, right? And basically hash power is going down. And this rarely happens that the 30 day moving average is below the 60 day moving average. It happens in bear markets. And now we're in such a configuration and we've been in it for 52 days, and basically this happens in a bear market. And the sign that usually you're at the other side of the bear market, you're starting the bull market is one of the 30 day moving average passes above the 60 day moving average. So now we've been in this configuration of a negative market for about fiat two days, which I think is the second longest in Bitcoin history. So it was just to point that out. Any comments there?
Alex Poltorak - 00:29:49:
First of all, it's a kind of model, and models in Bitcoin are pretty new, so they may be weak models. Also, it doesn't have too much history of this model, so I don't know how much we can trust it.
Didier Borel - 00:30:09:
I trust it as much as I trust all economic models. They take ten cases and five of them work and they say statistically significant economics.
Alex Poltorak - 00:30:19:
Yeah, normally if you consider that if like, everyone would be rational minor, this model should be working. But I know that not everybody is acting rationally. And also, there are different parameters that are changing, like new mining hardware is coming out, prices on electricity are changing worldwide. So, yeah, I'm not sure how much we should trust this model and draw like strict conclusions on these charge.
Didier Borel - 00:31:01:
And finally, the last headline that struck me, because we've been through more or less bear market in crypto that we are still in, and Ethereum was Celsius and Three Arrows, that we all know that BlockFi had a lot of trouble there and that a lot of firms are laying off in Crypto, Coinbase and Open C and many others. And so this headline struck me that we're maybe not yet completely finished the purge of all the excesses. So crypto lender BlockFi had 1.8 billion in loans at the end of June and 600 million of exposure. In other words, they had $1.8 billion of outstanding loans at the end of the second quarter of 2022 and they only had 1.2 billion in collateral posted at the time. So that means it leaves them with a net exposure of 600 million to the people they lend money to. So I found that surprising after their recent problems and maybe an inflation that all the purging hasn't happened yet.
Mauro Cappiello - 00:32:08:
Obviously it's a little bit scary, right? I guess that's why I can see then the regulators seeing this and Sat guys, that's why we are regulating you guys, because your did of just go too risky, right? They take too risky path.
Didier Borel - 00:32:27:
Well, for sure they practice rules and methods, but just that the underlying thing they're applying it to is crypto assets. There's nothing sort of really DeFi in it. So the classic Trapfi problem is always that you take assets from a client who can claim them back and ask them back spot, meaning the next day you take his assets and then you lend it out to people who don't have to pay you back for maybe three or six months. And it's the whole idea of the bank, it's all based on the idea that not all your clients are going to come into the bank on the same day and ask for their money back. And so you always have this match of assets and liabilities.
Mauro Cappiello - 00:33:11:
What about risk weighted assets calculation?
Didier Borel - 00:33:14:
Mauro Cappiello - 00:33:15:
Because of that.
Didier Borel - 00:33:16:
Mauro Cappiello - 00:33:17:
In this way, the Dastard calculations and then the regulator will tell you how much you need to have in capital to cover your exposure. Now, are they still in line with them? I have no idea. Right, so things are coming their way, which we all know already.
Alex Poltorak - 00:33:43:
So the exchange cracking, I think since 2014, they are offering proof of reserve so any customer can verify cryptographically that the exchange hold enough bitcoin to give them back. And to everyone else. So every position would be covered. And this is something that should be a good practice done by every exchange or every financial intermediary in bitcoin. Unfortunately, almost nobody does it, and even on cracking, almost nobody checks it, so it's a bit sad. And the market tried to auto regulate itself, unfortunately didn't really work out. So probably at some point the regulator will kick in severely and regulate all these kind of entities. Now, I personally haven't followed, but a friend of mine who followed a little bit Free Aero Capital thing, he told that they tried to call brokers and stuff in the traditional finance to delay things or to arrange things. And every loan that they had in a smart contract loan was liquidated automatically, without any discussion, without any trial to rearrange agreements or things like this. So this is also kind of marking the difference for people. So I hope that over time people will really see the difference between these truly decentralized protocols where you cannot, just because you are famous and like CEO of a big company, try to find an arrangement to squeeze the customers instead of your company and they truly DeFi thing where you cannot do this.
Didier Borel - 00:35:53:
We still need more time.
Alex Poltorak - 00:35:54:
Mauro Cappiello - 00:35:55:
Two things. Either we need more exactly. I think it's probably more time for the clothes to evolve, to incorporate all the loopholes.
Didier Borel - 00:36:07:
Absolutely. Okey dokey, gentlemen. Thank you very much. So I think we'll call it a day here and we'll speak again in one month's time.
Alex Poltorak - 00:36:17:
Didier Borel - 00:36:18:
Alex Poltorak - 00:36:18:
Right, bye bye.
Didier Borel - 00:36:21:
Alex Poltorak - 00:36:22:
Didier Borel - 00:36:24:
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